交通运输行业对物流行业股价指数的影响分析

摘要

In this paper, from the perspective of industrial linkage and through such empirical methods as correlativity analysis, multi-linear regression and VAR model, etc., we studied the share price indexes of the four major traffic and transportation sectors, namely highway, railway, shipping and aviation, on the share price index of the logistics industry and found that there existed significant positive influence between the share price index of the highway, shipping and aviation sectors and that of the logistics industry; as for the railway sector, though its current influence on the share price index of the logistic industry was for the negative, it exerted significant positive hysteresis effect on the latter.%从行业联动性的角度出发,通过相关性分析、多元线性回归和VAR模型等实证方法,研究了公路、铁路、航运及航空运输这四大主要交通运输行业股价指数对物流行业股价指数的影响.结果表明,公路、航运及航空运输业对物流业股价指数具有显著正向的影响.而对铁路运输行业股价指数而言,虽然其对物流业股价指数的当期影响为负,但对该指数存在正向且显著的滞后效应.