基于模糊德尔菲法的历史文化名城保护规划实施评价研究

摘要

我国历史文化名城保护规划实施评价的内容体系和标准体系具有双重复杂性,在实际工程评价方法上主要依赖经验判断,在评价标准上仍缺乏客观性度量及居民反馈测度,且缺乏具有可操作性的模型建构方法.需要采用合理的数理统计方法对多准则决策法进行优化,建立一套全面而简明的规划实施评价的内容体系和指标体系,为提高名城评价体系的系统性和可操作性提供思路.为此,首先建立了历史文化名城保护规划实施评价的研究思路和框架,而后基于模糊德尔菲法(FDM)分别优化了评价内容体系和评价标准体系,得到了简化后的历史文化名城保护规划实施评价研究的框架体系和标准体系,可为我国历史文化名城保护规划的实施、修编或重编提供依据.%The current researches on the post-hoc evaluation on the implementation of historic city conservation planning in China confront dual complexity in their evaluation framework and criteria .Their evaluation methods are primarily based on experimentalism and qualitative descriptions ,while the criteria lack subjective measurements ,as well as the assessment of the feedbacks from citizens .Moreover ,a feasible modelling method is needed for the establishment of a robust and feasible evaluation framework .It requires the utilization of a proper statistic method to refine the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM ) method which are mostly adopted in urban planning implementation assessment .This paper aims to develop a methodology framework for the assessment of historic city conservation planning implementation in China ,which can deal with the complexity and feasibility of the post-hoc evaluation .The initiative evaluation framework and a set of standards are primarily established .The framework is built based on the spatial-temporal dimension , the development stages and implementation mechanism . The evaluation standards cover both quantitative and qualitative indexes , as well as feedback survey . Then , each constitution and criteria for evaluation are simplified based on fuzzy Delphi method (FDM ) .The refined evaluation framework is estimated to provide references for the implementation ,revision and re-formulation of historic city conservation planning .