水环境安全不仅是生态环境问题,更是直接关系区域经济发展和政治稳定的问题.基于"压力-状态-响应"模型和"五水共治"决策构建评估指标体系,应用层次分析评估方法,对浙江省治水前后水环境安全进行评估与预警.结果显示:自2014年治水工作开展以来,浙江省水环境安全趋于好转,安全指数呈上升趋势,2014年、2015年较2013年分别提高了7.38% 和16.85%,水环境安全从预警状态转为较安全状态.按照"五水共治"分阶段规划要求,浙江省2017和2020年水环境安全度值分别达到0.7545和0.7989,较2015年分别提高7.63% 和13.97%,水环境将维持在较安全状态,接近于安全状态的临界值,水环境的明显改善反映了浙江省"五水共治"工作的成效.结合具体指标分析可知,单位GDP废水排放量大、主要污染物排放负荷高、环境污染治理投资总额占GDP比重低等因素是水环境安全的主要胁迫因子,浙江省应优化水资源配置、加快产业结构调整与转型升级、加大环保投入,以降低水资源的环境风险.%Water environment security is not only an ecological and environmental problem,but also directly related to regional economic development and political stability.A system of evaluation index based on the pressure-state-response(PSR)model and the policy of"Five-Water-Governance"is constructed.Water environment security is assessed and alerted for the time period before and after carrying on the policy in Zhejiang province by utilizing the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)weighting method.The results show that water environment security is getting better successively from 2014.The security index shows an increasing trend and transforms to safer state. Compared with 2013,the security index of 2014 and 2015 increase by 7.38% and 16.85%,respectively.According to the"Five-Water-Governance"stage planning scenario,the value of water environment security will reach respectively 0.754 5 and 0.798 9 in 2017 and 2020,which increase 7.63%,13.97% if compared with that of 2015, the water environment security will be close to the critical value of the safe state.It appears that the high discharge of pollutants per unit of GDP and high discharge of major pollutants,the low proportion of GDP regarding total investment for environmental pollution control,are the main stressing factors of water environment safety.Further optimization of the allocation of water resources,speeding up the adjustment and upgrading the industrial structure, increasing investment in environmental protection to reduce the environmental risks of water resources are highly preferable for Zhejiang province.
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