基于正反馈的国际原油价格下跌原因分析

摘要

从交易者行为视角，利用正反馈交易模型分析了当前国际油价下跌原因，并预测未来油价走势。研究表明：国际原油供给过剩是正反馈交易行为的基础；原油市场交易者的正反馈行为加剧了油价下跌，其中原油投机者与投资者做空市场使油价跌破原油内在价值后引起原油商业交易者选择正反馈行为是关键；实证检验了国际原油市场正反馈交易的存在性；未来油价变动取决于国际原油市场供给方面，尤其是 OPEC 与美国页岩油供给的博弈。%From the perspective of dealers,positive feedback transaction model was used to analyze the causes of international oil falling price and predict the future tendency of oil price. The results showed:firstly, oversupply of international crude oil is the foundation of positive feedback transaction behavior;secondly,oil price decline is intensified by the positive feedback behavior of dealers in crude oil market,and the key point is that crude commercial dealers choose the positive feedback behaviors after speculators and investors sold short in the market and made crude oil price fall beyond its natural value;next,an empirical study is done to verify the existence of positive feedback transaction in international crude oil market;finally,the variety of fu-ture oil price depends on the supply of international crude oil market,especially the competition of OPPC and American shale oil supply.