基于直觉模糊理论的BOT水利发电方案群决策

摘要

针对建设-运营-移交(build-operate-transfer,BOT)水利发电方案复杂及多准则决策问题,基于直觉模糊似然值-ELECTRE-III模型,建立BOT水利发电方案决策框架,构建包含5类准则在内的BOT水利发电方案综合评价指标体系;通过在群决策中应用直觉模糊集对决策者不完全信息进行描述,应用广义直觉模糊有序加权几何平均算子处理决策参数间相互影响问题,进而通过似然值比较,使不精确决策信息被合理使用,并通过构建级别优于关系避免指标补偿问题.基于决策框架进行实证研究的结果表明了该方法的有效性,可以为开展BOT水利发电项目及其方案决策优化提供参考.%Aiming at the decision making problem of BOT hydroelectric schemes,the traditional complex multiple criteria decision making method was optimized by using ELECTRE-llⅢ under intuitionistic fuzzy environment for the construction of BOT (build-operate-transfer) hydroelectric scheme optimization model.A comprehensive evaluation index system was built which contained five types of guidelines.Intuition fuzzy sets were applied in group decision making for incomplete information of decision makers.GIFWGIA (generalized intuitionistic fuzzy ordered weighted geometric interaction averaging operator) was used for processing the interaction problem.The inaccurate information was fairly used and the loss of information was avoided by comparing with likelihood values.Finally,the model-based empirical research was conducted.The results confirm the validity of the method and provide reference for Chinese BOT hydropower scheme decision.