向莆铁路作为中西部地区至东南沿海港口运输大通道的骨干线路，打通了内陆地区新的出海口.本文通过对腹地经济发展趋势分析、向莆铁路货物集疏运能力及运输成本的估算，对比分析了向莆铁路对既有铁路和水路运输格局的影响.结果表明，向莆铁路的货运能力受开行旅客列车的总对数及不同速度目标值的列车比例的影响显著，单位公里运费相对既有铁路路径具有较大价格竞争优势，不同品类不同运价方案最多节省运费15.6%至36.8%，与水运线路运费对比，向莆铁路在江西省境内也具有较强竞争力.为了不断优化内陆运输网络格局，还需要相关政府部门明确内陆地区的对接港口和向莆铁路的重要定位.%As the main railway line of transportation corridor from Midwest to the east coast ports,Xiangpu railway opened the new route from inland areas to the sea. Based on the analysis of hinterland economic trends, and the estimation of the railway freight collection and distribution capabilities and transportation cost, this paper comparatively analyzes the affections of Xiangpu railway on the existing transportation pat-tern. The results show that the Xiangpu railway freight capacity is significantly affected by the passenger trains operation plan and speed;the unit transportation cost of Xiangpu railway has relatively greater compet-itive advantage compared with the existing routes. Xiangpu railway could save at most 15.6% to 36.8% in different transport price and kinds of goods scenarios;Xiangpu railway also has a strong competitive com-pared to the water routes. In order to optimize the transportation pattern, the relevant government depart-ments also need to clear the connection of certain port and the important position of Xiangpu railway.
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