基于时段分布的市郊轨道交通车站滞留客流分布算法

摘要

The stranded passenger flow forecasting of suburban rail station is related to the adjustment of operation plan, trip mode choice of passengers, and prediction of travel time, especially for operation scheme optimization based on fast-slow mode is of great importance. First of all, the theory of angle expenses is introduced, from the cost of the way of transit trip and subway lines, which determines the passenger choice. It uses the passenger flow data obtaining from AFC as data support. A forecasting method of passenger flow is presented based on period distribution. Secondly, it analyzes the law of passenger flow and traffic exchange platform based on train passenger status. It also proposes the waiting passenger train ridership interaction model, and studies the algorithm. Finally, this paper takes a suburban line as example calculation. It shows that the accuracy of the prediction results is improved. This can be as supplementary for railway traffic planning, guidance for passenger flow, and be of certain reference and practical.%市郊轨道交通车站滞留客流的分时段预测，关系到运营计划的调整、乘客出行方式的选择、出行时间的预估等，尤其对市郊线路快慢车模式下开行方案的优化具有重要意义。首先引入出行方式角度费用理论，分析了乘客公交出行与地铁线路形成的角度费用，构建了角度费用模型Anglecostm,nk ，计算乘客的流失率VPn ，进而确定因滞留客流达到阈值而导致的乘客流失量。其次，以AFC获取的客流数据为支撑，结合角度费用模型对乘客流失量的计算，提出了一种基于时段的滞留车站客流分布预测方法，接着分析了站台候车客流与通过列车实际载客情况两者之间的客流交互规律，提出了候车客流—列车载客量影响动态交换模型，并分析和研究该模型求解算法。最后，以某市郊线路进行实例演算，预测结果可为轨道交通开行方案优化提供理论和方法支持，对运营计划临时调整，客流预测及引导模型的补充等提供参考。