基于模糊综合评判的桥梁设计阶段的风险估计

摘要

为了对桥梁生产事故进行源头管理，提高桥梁设计阶段安全性，从桥梁设计阶段工程选址和设计因素两个方面出发，定义了面向工程选址和设计因素的多项风险指标，并构建了基于这些风险指标的设计阶段风险估计指标体系；考虑到风险指标存在不确定性和模糊性，构建了基于模糊综合评判的桥梁设计阶段风险估计方法，将风险发生概率和风险损失嵌入其中，以此为依据确定指标权重和隶属度；最后通过实例证明了方法的可行性和有效性。%In order to control bridge accidents at the source and improve the safety in bridge design stage, a number of risk factors were defined from the points of project site and design factors, and a risk estimation index system for bridge design stage was created based on these risk factors; Then, the uncertainty and fuzziness of the risk factors were given, the risk estimation in bridge design stage based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) was created. This model determines the weights and the memberships of the risk factors according to the risk occurrence probability and risk losses. At the end, an instance was used to prove the feasibility and the efficiency of the model.