损失模型及其随机模拟

摘要

The paper discusses that policy limits, deductibles and inflation impact on the claim amount distribution. By using stochastic simulation method estimates parameters and quantiles of Pareto distribution, discusses the error of simulation. Last it establishes the total losses model when losses are not independent and identically distributed, discusses the property of total losses by using stochastic simulation method ,gives the simulation program.%研究保单限额、免赔额及通货膨胀率对理赔额的影响，利用随机模拟方法估计Pareto分布参数、分位数并对误差进行讨论。最后，在假定在损失额独立或同分布不成立的情形下，建立了总损失模型，并利用随机模拟探讨了总损额的性质，给出了模拟程序。