农村代际流动对土地流转的影响

摘要

基于农村代际流动背景,从理论角度分析农村子代人口流动对父辈土地流转影响的作用机理;借助2015年中国健康养老与追踪调查数据,采用两部分模型(Two Part Model):Probit模型探究子代人口流动能否推动父辈土地流转行为发生,Tobit模型分析其对土地流转面积的影响.研究结果表明:农村子女受教育水平、非农户口、流入城市等级和收入水平显著正向影响其父辈土地流转;并通过分组回归发现,农村代际流动对父辈年龄差异群体、子女数量以及居住养老方式差异群体的土地流转行为,产生不同的影响效果.为此,应当根据农村地区差异和实际发展水平,加强教育建设,推动社会公平,阻断社会阶层固化与贫穷代际传递,增强代际流动性,进而推动土地流转.%Based on the rural inter-generational mobile background,this paper analyzes the function mechanism of rural offspring's migration on land transfer from a theoretical perspective.Using the 2015 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study data,a two part model is constructed: a Probity model to explore whether the migration can promote the transfer of land,while Tobit model to analyze its impact on land area.The results show that the educational level of rural children,non-agricultural households,the level of urban inflows and income levels have a significant positive effect on the flow of land.Through group regression,we find that inter-generational mobility in rural areas has different effects on the land circulation behavior among different age groups,number of children and different groups in residential pension.Based on the study above,according to the differences and actual levels of development,strengthening education,promoting social equity,interrupting the solidarity of social classes and inter-generational transmission of poverty,and enhancing inter-generational mobility can promote the transfer of land.