随机产出和随机需求下的供应链生产与订购策略

摘要

为了使随机供给侧和随机需求侧更好地匹配, 针对由单一供应商和单一零售商组成的单周期两阶段供应链, 分别构建基于传统契约以及期权契约的供应链生产与订购策略模型, 得出两种模型下买方最优订购决策以及卖方最优生产决策的显性解.分析表明: 与传统契约相比, 期权契约能够有效应对产出和需求双边随机性给供应链带来的风险, 提高供应链买卖双方的期望利润.%How to better match the random supply side and the random demand side has been an important subject to supply chain. To solve this issue, a production and procurement strategy model with traditional contract and option contract are built respectively in a single-supplier and single-buyer supply chain. Both the buyer's and the supplier's profit functions are studied. The study shows that the option contract can effectively cope with the risk from the uncertainties of the supply and demand in supply chain and improve both the buyer' s and supplier's expected profits compared with traditional contract.