针对影响巷道围岩稳定性的因素多且具有不确定性和隐蔽性的特点,选取实测RQD值、单轴抗压强度、隙壁状态3个主要影响因素作为判别指标,利用未确知测度理论,建立巷道围岩稳定性预测模型.利用25组巷道围岩资料作为模型构建样本,以样本均值为聚类中心,采用信息熵理论确定各判别指标的权重,从而计算样本的多指标综合测度;根据最小未确知测度距离原理判断样本所属类别,进而对巷道围岩稳定性进行预测,且用逐一回代的方法检验预测模型的合理性.刊用所建立的巷道围岩稳定性预测模型对大冶铁矿5组待判别样本进行应用预测,预测结果符合工程勘察实际,表明基于未确知聚类法的巷道围岩稳定性预测方法具有较好的实用性和有效性.%Aiming at the factors influencing the stability of surrounding rock of roadway with a large number, uncertainty and concealment, three main influencing factors including the measured RQD value, the uniaxial compressive strength, and the status of gap wall were selected as the judgment indexes, and a forecast model on stability of surrounding rock of roadway was established by using the unascertained measurement theory.The data of 25 groups of surrounding rock of roadway was taken as the samples of model establishment, and the average value of samples was taken as the clustering center, then the weight of each judgment index was determined by using the information entropy theory.Through calculating the multi-index comprehensive measurement of samples, the classification of samples was judged according to the principle of minimum unascertained measurement distance, so as to forecast the stability of surrounding rock of roadway, and the one by one back substitution method was applied to verify the rationality of the forecast model.The application forecast of the established model was carried out on five groups of samples to be determined in Daye iron mine, and the forecast results were consistent with the engineering survey practice, which showed that the stability forecast method on surrounding rock of roadway based on unascertained clustering method has a good practicability and validity.
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