国债发行与国民经济发展关系的定量研究

摘要

改革开发以来,中国国债发行规模逐年扩大,国债已影响到了国民经济的各个层面.国债发行规模适度问题已成为国债研究的中心问题.影响我国国债发行规模的最主要因素是什么?怎样度量中国国债的适度规模?这些问题已引起理论界的广泛注意,但迄今未有定论.本文采用现代经济计量及统计分析方法,对国债发行与国民经济发展之间的关系进行了定量分析,得出国债发行对国民经济发展的积极推动作用.希望所得结论能对国债规模管理提供参考.本文是以"实际数据蕴涵着规律"观点为基础,从三方面定量探索了国债发行与国民经济发展的关系.%Since China's opening to the outside world,the government bond issuing scale increases year after year. So far, the debt has nearly influenced every part of national economy ,and its issuing scale problem has become one of debt issuing?How to measure the appropriate scale of government debt. These problems arouse attentions in the theoretical field,but there aren't any conclusions so far. Using the actual data and modern econometric and statistical analysis method in this paper, we get some conclusions about relationship between the debt and economy in China,which may be useful references in bond management.