我国劳动力老化对劳动生产率的影响研究

摘要

人口老龄化对经济的直接影响体现为劳动力老化对劳动生产率的影响。本文在基于标准 C-D 生产函数的计量经济模型框架下，采用省级面板数据和固定效应估计方法，深入探究全国以及不同区域劳动力老化对劳动生产率的影响。实证结果显示，我国劳动力老化对劳动生产率有显著的消极影响，且沿海地区劳动力老化对劳动生产率的消极影响比非沿海地区更强烈。要缓解劳动力力老化对劳动生产率的消极影响，可以从以下三个方面入手：首先，稳定低生育水平，适当放宽人口政策；其次，大力发展教育事业，特别是对老年劳动力的教育和培训；第三，合理引导人口流动，实现地区间劳动力年龄结构的优势互补。%The direct impact of population aging on economy is the effects of labor force aging on productivity.Involving the C-D econometric model framework based on a standard production function,by using provincial panel data and fixed effects estimation method,this paper studied the impact of labor force aging on the productivity performance in the whole China and the different regions of the country.The empirical result shows that labor force aging has a significant negative impact on pro-ductivity in China.Additionally,the negative impact is stronger in the coastal areas.Therefore,in order to alleviate the nega-tive impact of the labor force aging on productivity,we may work from the following aspects:firstly,to keep the low birth rate and appropriately relax the population policy;secondly,to develop education,especially the education and training system for older workforce;thirdly,to guide population migration rationally and realize the advantages of population age structure comple-menting between regions.