'民工荒'与我国'刘易斯拐点'问题

摘要

The deviation of the understanding of Lewis model is the main reason for the controversy over the e-mergence of"Lewis turning point"in China since the two"shortage of migrant workers"in the new century.In fact,the"Lewis turning point"has two main signs:Firstly,the rural surplus labor continues to decline.Secondly, the level of agricultural wages has risen significantly.The empirical data in recent years show that China has indeed entered this turning point.It is not only a challenge,but also an opportunity for China's economic development. In fact,crossing the"Lewis first turning point"not only means that China has changed from"the first demographic dividend"stage to the"second demographic dividend"stage of transformation and upgrading,and thus bring us many important conclusions and enlightenment."Labor shortage"and"difficult employment"is mainly caused by asymmetric labor supply and demand structure in China.In the new phase of China's rural surplus labor force from unlimited supply to limited surplus,the Party and government should strive to unlock the"second demographic dividend"by vigorously strengthening all kinds of education training.We should make efforts to eliminate barriers to the transfer and flow of labor and create a unified labor market in urban and rural areas as soon as possible.The Party and the government should plan,deploy and promote the work of"public entrepreneurship,masses'innova-tion"more comprehensive scientific and systematic,under the condition of the new era,for our success of across the"Lewis second turning point".%对刘易斯模型理解上的偏差,是造成21世纪以来因两次"民工荒"所引发学术界关于我国"刘易斯拐点"是否出现的众多争议的主要原因.出现"刘易斯拐点"主要有两个标志:一是农村剩余劳动力持续下降,二是农业工资水平显著上升.近年来的经验数据充分表明:我国确已进入这一拐点,这对我国经济发展既是挑战,更是机遇,越过"刘易斯第一拐点",不仅意味着我国已从"第一次人口红利"阶段向"第二次人口红利"阶段转型升级,同时也由此为我们带来诸多重要的结论和启示."民工荒"与"就业难"并存,主要是由我国劳动力供需结构不对称造成的.在我国农村剩余劳动力从无限供给转向有限剩余的新阶段,党和政府应通过大力加强各类教育培训来努力挖潜释放"第二次人口红利";要努力消除限制劳动力转移与流动的各种障碍,尽快营造出城乡统一的劳动力市场;党和政府应在新时代条件下更加全面科学系统地规划、部署和推进"大众创业、万众创新"的各项工作,为我国成功跨越"刘易斯第二拐点"引航助力.