For long-term prediction of occurrence degree of tobacco aphid Myzus persicae (Sulzer), Markov chain method was used to establish prediction model for occurrence degree of tobacco aphid. With 4 levels of occurrence degree, Markov chain model was established based on the data in 1987-2004. The results indicated that the accuracy for total prediction in 2005-2007 and the back prediction in 1987-2004 reached 88.89% and 85.12%, respectively. The method is simple and feasible for long-term prediction of occurrence degree of tobacco aphid.
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