基于证据理论和云理论的C4ISR系统效能评估

摘要

To solve the problem of qualitative evaluation for C4 ISR system effectiveness, a method was proposed based on evidence theory and cloud theory. Effectiveness reliability model was constructed at first, so the uncertainty in the course of qualitative evaluation can be reflected by effectiveness reliability set by evaluation experts. Then the discounting evidence combination rule was used to fuse the results in order to get the reasonable evaluation ones, which overcomes the highly conflict generated by the knowledge difference among evaluation experts. Finally, the qualitative result of effectiveness evaluation was generated by using the method of membership cloud gravity center (MCGC).Simulation results show that this method is simple and effective and can be applicable to qualitative evaluation for other similar complicated systems.%为了解决C4ISR系统效能的定性评估问题,提出了一种基于证据理论和云理论的评估方法.首先,构建效能信度模型,通过评估专家对效能信度的赋值反映出定性评估过程中的不确定性,然后采用折扣融合证据规则对评估值进行融合,克服了专家经验知识不同所带来的证据高冲突性,最后使用云重心评判法得到系统效能的定性评估结果.仿真结果表明:该评估方法简单有效,并且适用于和C4ISR系统类似的复杂系统效能定性评估.