腐蚀损伤下船体总纵极限强度可靠性分析方法探讨

摘要

针对腐蚀损伤下船体结构安全性评估问题,基于实船腐蚀勘验数据,引入非概率可靠性评估理论,提出舰艇现时状态下船体结构总纵极限强度非概率可靠性分析方法,建立船体结构非概率可靠性分析模型.对某舰艇船体结构现时状态下的总纵极限强度可靠性及非概率可靠性分析方法在船体结构安全状态评估方面的应用性进行了分析.结果表明:非概率可靠性分析方法克服了过度依赖样本数据的缺陷,较确定性方法更贴近客观实际,在舰艇船体结构技术状态评估方面具有较好的应用前景.%In terms of the reliability analysis of ultimate longitudinal strength of naval ships in-service based on the data of pitting corrosion recorded, the non-probabilistic reliability analysis theory was introduced.A new method to analyze the ultimate longitudinal strength reliability under the present condition was put forward for hull structures,the non-probabilistic reliability analysis model was established, and the application of non-probability reliability method on condition assessment of hull structure was analyzed.Results show that the proposed theory overcomes the defects that relied too much on the corrosion sample library,the consequence tends to be more realistic than the deterministic method,and the non-probabilistic reliability analysis theory has a good application prospect for condition assessment of naval ships.