中亚五国对外贸易与新疆经济增长的相关性

摘要

新疆对中亚五国的外贸在新疆对外贸易中的比重达到70%以上，对新疆经济增长具有重要作用。文章以1999-2013年为样本期，利用统计数据，对新疆-中亚五国的对外贸易进行了统计分析，并对新疆-中亚五国的对外贸易与新疆经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果显示：新疆-中亚五国的对外贸易与经济增长之间存在长期动态均衡关系；新疆对中亚五国的出口是经济增长的Granger因，新疆地区GDP的增长是新疆对中亚五国进口的Granger因。因此，加强中国新疆与中亚五国的双边贸易有益于双方经济增长。%Astract: Foreign trade between Xinjiang and five central Asian countries accounts for more than 70% of the total volume of foreign trade of Xinjiang, and has played an important role in the economic growth of Xinjiang. This paper analyzes the features of foreign trade of Xinjiang and the relationship of the foreign trade between Xinjiang and five central Asian countries based on statistics from 1999 to 2013. It shows that there lies the relationship of long-term dynamic equilibrium between the foreign trade of Xinjiang and five central Asian countries and the economic growth of Xinjiang, export trade of Xinjiang and five central Asian countries is the Granger cause of the economic growth of Xinjiang, and the economic growth of Xinjiang is the Granger cause of import trade of Xinjiang and five central Asian countries. Therefore, the strengthening bilateral trade of Xinjiang and five central Asian countries is beneficial to the economic growth of both sides.