影响辽东半岛两次相似路径的台风对比分析

摘要

Two typhoons called Muifa(1109)and Bolaven(1215)formed over the Yellow Sea area both moved northward and affected Liaodong Peninsula.There were errors in the forecast of precipitation and wind intensity for these two typhoon processes.Based on the conventional meteorological data,observational data from intensive au-tomatic weather stations and the NCEP reanalysis data,the above two typhoons were compared and analyzed.The results show that low trough at mid-high latitude(from 1 10°E to 120°E)of 500 hPa,the Okhotsk blocking high,the change of Subtropical High intensity and shape,and the northern cold air all significantly affect the northward track and intensity of the typhoons.The northern cold air was important to precipitation caused by northward typhoon, and spiral rain band around the typhoon leads to precipitation.The Japan Sea High ridge stretching to northeastern China influences significantly gale.The duration of typhoon impact is closely relative to involvement of cold air af-ter landfall.%1109号台风“梅花”和1215号台风“布拉万”是自黄海海域北上影响辽东半岛的台风，两次台风降雨量和风力的预报均出现偏差。利用常规气象资料、加密气象自动观测站资料及NCEP再分析资料对两次台风过程进行对比分析。结果表明：500 hPa中高纬度110°—120°E附近低槽、鄂霍次克海阻塞高压、副热带高压强度和形状的改变及北方冷空气对台风北上路径和强度有重要影响。北方冷空气对北上台风引起的降雨十分关键，降雨主要由台风外围螺旋雨带造成。日本海高压伸向中国东北地区的高压脊对大风的形成有重要作用，台风登陆后影响时间的长短与登陆后冷空气的配合有密切关系。