黑龙江省主要农作物气象灾害气象服务贡献率及其效益评估

摘要

Based on the assessing method of Delphy and grain yield data of 2009 and 2011,the benefit of meteoro-logical service for meteorological disasters of the main crops was analyzed and evaluated in Heilongjiang province. The results show that beneficial contribution rates of meteorological service for main crops in 2009 and 20 1 1 were 4.9% and 3. 1%,respectively.The occurrences times of meteorological disaster in 2009 is more than that in 2011, which leads to beneficial contribution rate of meteorological service higher in 2009 than in 20 1 1 .Compared the beneficial contribution rates of meteorological service for three crops in Heilongjiang province,the rank of benefi-cial contribution rate is rice>corn>soybean.For maize and soybean,contribution rate of meteorological service is the highest during the period from sowing to emergence.For rice,contribution rate of meteorological service is the highest during the period from seeding to active growing season.%利用2009年和2011年黑龙江省粮食产量资料，采用德尔菲法对黑龙江省主要农作物气象灾害的气象服务效益进行分析和评估。结果表明：2009年和2011年黑龙江省主要农作物气象灾害的气象服务效益贡献率分别为4.9％、3.1％，气象灾害出现较多的2009年主要农作物气象灾害的气象服务贡献率高于气象灾害出现较少的2011年；由黑龙江省3种主要农作物气象灾害气象服务贡献率的对比可见，贡献率依次为水稻＞玉米＞大豆；由3种农作物关键发育阶段气象灾害气象服务贡献率的对比可见，玉米和大豆播种—出苗阶段的气象服务贡献率最高，而水稻苗期—旺盛生长期的气象服务贡献率最高。