雷暴持续时间与地闪活动的预报方法研究

摘要

根据2007-2008年6-8月湖南地区地闪定位、天气背景及探空资料,利用天气学分型及数理统计等方法,对湖南夏季雷暴的天气背景、持续时间以及雷暴过程中地闪的活动进行分析,定义的地闪频数指数(Icgf)可以较好地区分地闪活动等级；利用逐步回归方法分别得到了雷暴持续时间及地闪频数指数的预报方程,且均通过的信度检验,并进一步提出了各地闪活动等级预报的诊断指标.%Based on the synoptic pattern classification method and mathematical statistic method, the synoptic situation and duration and CG lightning activities are studied in this paper by using the lightning positioning, weather background and sounding data during summer of 2007 and 2008. Main results are as follows :CG frequency index (Icgf) can easily be used to distinguish the grade of thunderstorm intensity. The forecasting equation of the thunderstorms duration and Icgf have been obtained by using stepwise regression. And the diagnostic index of each CG lightning activities grade have been proposed.