住房价格波动对城镇居民消费的影响分析

摘要

In this paper,urban households are divided into three groups:those who possess at least two houses (household type 1),those who own only one house (household type 2) and those who have no houses (household type 3).The analysis based on a microeconomic model constructed in this paper reveals that consumption of the first two groups increases when housing prices rise.However,members of the last group make different reactions to the rising of housing prices:their consumption decreases because of crowding-out effects when they have plans to buy houses and increases when they have not.The impact of fluctuation in housing prices on consumption is correlated with levels of consumption,housing prices,living area,habit of consumption,risk preferences and interest rates.Empirical analysis based on data from China Household Financial Survey (CHFS) indicates that the rising of housing prices stimulates consumption of all kinds of households.Additionally,the effect is most significant for household type 3 and least significant for household type 2.It is also different between three regions in China and most significant in the East region.%将城镇居民家庭分为拥有至少两套住房的家庭(代表性家庭1)、只有一套住房的家庭(代表性家庭2)和没有住房的租房家庭(代表性家庭3)3类,微观经济模型分析表明:住房价格上涨会拉动代表性家庭1和代表性家庭2的消费增长;当代表性家庭3有购买住房意愿和计划时,住房价格上涨对其消费具有挤出效应;当代表性家庭3没有购买住房意愿和计划时,其消费随着住房价格的上升而增加;住房价格上涨影响居民消费的程度与家庭当前消费水平、住房价格、居住面积、消费习惯、对待风险的态度和利率等因素有关.利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据的实证分析表明:住房价格上涨对代表性家庭1、代表性家庭2和代表性家庭3这3类家庭的消费均具有促进作用;从影响程度来看,对无房城镇家庭的影响程度最大,对仅有一套住房城镇家庭的影响程度最小;从地域来看,房价上涨对东部地区城镇居民家庭消费的影响高于中西部地区.