中国延迟退休的主要影响因素及执行时间预测

摘要

As for delaying retirement age in China, the formula for calculating affecting factors like average life expectancy, degree of population aging, supply and demand of labor as well as national level of education is constructed; a model?for analyzing their respective influence is then established; the retirement ages for 5 different professions such as teachers, physicians, company staff, bus drivers and heavy physical laborers are obtained using AHP method; finally by referring to the related data of America, Japan, Britain, Australia, Italy and other countries, using the fuzzy clustering method, the time for the execution of possible new retirement policy in China is speculated. Finally, the prospective impact of the policy on endowment insurance is analyzed using quantitative method.%针对中国的延迟退休：先建立国民人均预期寿命、人口老龄化程度、劳动力供求和国民受教育等影响指标计算公式，综合分析并建立延迟退休影响力模型；再针对教师、内科医生、公司职员、客车司机、重体力劳动者5类群体，运用层次分析法得出各类群体具体退休年龄，并结合美国、日本、英国、澳大利亚、意大利等国家的相关指标数据，使用模糊聚类方法联系中国国情得出中国退休政策执行时间预测表；最后，定量分析了我国“延迟退休”政策实施对养老保险可能带来的影响。