基于二级供应链网络的牛鞭效应治理

摘要

An optimization model is presented to improve the performance of a two-echelon supply chain by addressing the problem of bullwhip effect.It takes demand fluctuation of multiple prod-ucts into consideration and aims at minimizing the sum difference amidst the actual order and the demand forecast.Accordingly the exponential smoothing technique is employed to forecast de-mands of each product,followed by an illustration of five products to clarify the feasibility of the proposed model.Results reveal that the proposed model is quite effective and reliable to reduce the BWE in a supply chain.%以制造商和零售商二级供应链网络为例，建立了一种基于指数平滑法的牛鞭效应优化模型。考虑多种产品的需求变动，以实际订货量与预测需求量偏差最小为优化目标。给出了一个涉及五种产品的算例，结果表明，模型能够实现有效地“降低牛鞭效应、提高供应链绩效”的目标。