论美国《中华人民共和国军事力量报告》的情报评估缺失

摘要

Military Power of the People's Republic of China (2000-2009) and Military and Security Developments Involving People's Republic of China (2010-2015) are the annual analysis and estimate of military power of PRC issued by U. S. Department of Defense. Some estimates and deductions upon military power of PRC in the Reports are based on incorrect data and tendentious notions of intelli-gence analysis. The article expounds intelligence analysis failures from the perspective of intelligence analysis philosophy of dualism, mode of mirror image, and preconceived notion in order to debunk the fraudulence and hypocrisy in the Reports.%《中华人民共和国军事力量报告》( Military Power of the People's Republic of China)和《涉及中华人民共和国的军事与安全发展报告》(Military and Security Developments Involving People's Republic of China)是美国国防部自2000年起对中国军事力量所做的年度分析与评估。《报告》对中国军事力量的一些评估与推断建立在自我认定的数据和具有偏见的情报分析思路之上。从“二元对立”的情报分析理念，“镜像思维”式的情报分析模式以及“先入为主”的情报分析思路等三方面论述《报告》的情报分析缺失，揭示《报告》存在的欺骗性和虚伪性。