基于线上线下互动网络的社会共识涌现研究

摘要

[目的/意义]随着媒体环境的社会化程度不断加深,人们以网民和现实社会人的双重身份对社会事物发表意见,使得舆论系统具备线上线下的网络结构和蕴含多种形式的社会交互.多层化的结构和多样化的交互增加了社会舆论的不确定性,既可能推动社会共识涌现,也可能导致社会意见分裂.什么情况下涌现社会共识、什么情况下出现意见分裂是一个重要的研究课题.[方法/过程]已有研究大多是从线上网络或线下网络单一角度考虑,未能反映网络的层次性和交互的多样性.该文从多层网络视角入手,以线上线上互动网络为基本结构,结合共识理论、冲突理论和社会判断理论,抽取两层网络互动机制和社会个体之间的交互规则,建立社会共识涌现模型及其算法,并且利用计算实验方法验证模型和算法.[结果/结论]实验表明:线上线下的互动能够显著影响社会舆论演化;舆论演化过程中涌现社会共识还是出现意见分化主要取决于社会个体的线上意见和线下意见是否一致以及与线上线下两个单层网络的意见交换过程是否对称;线上和线下两个单层网络的结构对社会共识涌现有一定影响,但是初始意见分布对社会共识涌现的影响有限.%[Purpose/Significance]With the increasing socialization of media, people can express and exchange their opinions on social issues as individuals both in online social network and in offline realistic society, which makes the structure of public opinion multi-layered and social interactions diversified and increases the uncertainty of public opinion dynamic.It is an important work to study the conditions social consensus would emerge in online-offline interacting networks.[Method/Process]Most of the existing works focus on investigating opinion dynamic only in a single social network, online or offline, which fails to reflect the real network structure and diversified social interactions.From the perspective of multi-layer network, a two-layer social network including online and offline networks is proposed to study the emerging of social consensus.Based on theories of consensus, conflict and social judgement, the formation and evolution of social consensus under the interactions between online-offline networks are theoretically investigated.We develop a dynamic model and algorithm for the emergence of social consensus under three kinds of online-offline interactions.Moreover, the model has been validated by computational experimental simulations.[Result/Conclusion]The results show that online-offline interactions have a significant impact on the formation and evolution of social consensus.The emergent social consensus depends on whether an individual's opinion and his interaction with others in online network and offline network are consistent.At the same time, the structures of single-layer network have influences on the emergence of social consensus to a certain degree, while the impact of initial opinion distribution on it is limited.