论丈提出了企业兼并价格确定包括基于期权视角的兼并目标价值确定和基于博弈视角的价格确定两个阶段.其次,在指出著名的Rubinstein讨价还价定理中隐含博弈目标价值服从均匀分布假设的基础上,给出了博弈目标价值服从一般随机分布条件下博弃均衡价格确定的分析思路.在此研究基础上讨论了企业兼并过程中的目标企业利润流在服从几何布朗运动的条件下大于经营成本或者小于经营成本的两种情况下企业兼并价格公式,最后在此研究基础上进行了数值仿真以说明模型对现实的解释能力.%In this paper, the target enterprise of merger/acquisition is mainly investigated to be measured based on the perspective of real options via introducing the synergy effect coefficient of M&A. The total process can be composed of two steps, the one is tell how to value the target enterprise and the other is tell how to price the target enterprise. Obviously, the merger enterprise and merged enterprise can be taken as two players respectively in one gamc, so the process of price decision is bargaining process between two players with the application of the famous Rubinstein bargaining theorem to price the target enterprise. Unfortunately, the classical theorem can only deal with those target enterprise's being certain value, which means that the theorem can't price the uncertain target value such as stochastic distribution process. How to improve the famous Rubinstein theorem to fit for pricing the uncertain target value? How to give the idea of valuing the target enterprise?In the first part, the idea of valuing the target enterprise is giving as follows while the corresponding formula is given by the way.The value of target enterprise includes three main components, which are intrinsic value, its corresponding real options and their synergy effect. The first can be measured by net present value while the second can be measured by real options which has been discussed deeply by Dixit. A. K et al and their research results is directly to be used. How to give the formula of synergy effect function is due to how to demonstrate the effect process of merger/acquisition, this paper argument that the merger effect is less than 1 at the beginning of the merger process, then it becomes bigger and bigger with the process of progressing. In the second part, the famous Rubinstein theorem is improved to fit for the stochastic distribution of target value. The Rubinstein theorem tells us how to carve up the target value by deciding their corresponding shares respectively irrespective of real target value. An inarguable important fact has been implied in this theorem which has been normally ignored. The fact is that the game target value is of uniform distribution in the closed interval [ 0, 1 ]. In order to illustrate how important the implied fact is, the fact will be used in our prove proof. By the way, the general formula of pricing target value is giving under stochastic surroundings, some corollaries are given to deal with some distributions of target value such as standard normal distribution, geometric Brownian motion, etc.In the last, the improved Rubinstein theorem is applied to price the target enterprise which is valued in the first part. , and some pricing formulae are given to discuss about the formulation constrained in profit flow being of the geometric Brownian motion under the two kinds of situation which including profit being more than or less than cost, and the experiment simulation illustrates their application and the interpretation power to reality.
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