基于Tornqvist-Theil方法的中国粮食生产增长核算研究

摘要

采用Tornqvist-Theil指数方法,测算了1978—2015年中国稻谷、小麦、玉米3种主要粮食作物的各投入要素和全要素生产率的增长率及其对粮食产出的贡献率,分析了1978年以来中国粮食生产要素结构的变化情况.结果显示,1978—2015年,中国主要粮食作物产量、全要素生产率以及除劳动力投入外的投入要素,虽然存在明显的阶段性波动,但总体上呈增长趋势;机械、化肥、土地及其他中间投入要素增长也促进了粮食的增产,但粮食作物产量的增长主要依赖于全要素生产率的增长;制度、政策、价格对粮食产出和全要素生产率的增长起到关键促进作用.未来中国粮食安全供给主要依靠科技进步带动的全要素生产率的增长.确保耕地面积、提高农民粮食生产积极性、依靠科技进步是保障中国粮食安全供给的重要措施.%This study estimated the growth of both intermediate inputs, total factor product (TFP), and their contributions to output of rice,wheat and corn in China during 1978—2015,using a growth accounting method of Tornqvist-Theil. Results showed that,while there had been an appreciable fluc-tuation during 1978—2015,the output of major grain crops,TFP,and inputs excluding labors presen-ted a growing trend;while inputs of machinery,fertilizers,land,and others made a contribution to the growth in grain output. The output growth in grain sector was mainly attributable to TFP growth,which was mainly driven by reforms of rural institutions, agricultural policies, and grain prices. Securing land acreage,improving incentives of farmers, and promoting technological changes are the main ap-proaches in guaranteeing China's grain supply.