1980-2011年福建省农业甲烷排放估算研究

摘要

基于1980-2011年福建省农业生产的相关统计数据,将稻田甲烷排放模型CH4MOD、排放因子法和GIS相结合,模拟估算了福建省1980-2011年农业源甲烷排放量.结果表明:(1)1980-2011年福建省农业CH4共排放1 219.71×104 t,总体呈下降趋势;(2)福建省农业CH4排放高值区主要分布在南平市、龙岩市和漳州市,约占福建农业CH4排放总量的47％;(3)32a间福建省水稻CH4总排放877.63×104 t,总体呈递减走势,年均递减率为1.96％.反刍动物肠道和动物粪便CH4排放量均呈明显上升趋势,年均增长率分别为1.04％和2.25％;(4)不同农业源CH4排放量差异较大,以稻田CH4排放最高,占总排放的72％,其次是动物肠道CH4排放,占总排放量的23％,动物粪便CH4排放约占5％;(5)对2025年甲烷排放量进行模型预测,表明福建省农业CH4排放量总体降低,反刍动物饲料和动物粪便管理效率的提高成为未来福建农业发展的重点.%Based on the agricultural production data collected in Fujian province from 1980 to 2011,this paper establishes a framework to estimate the amount of agricultural methane emission during that period by using the combined work of modeling methane emission from rice paddies and GIS spatial database.The results show that:(1) the amount of Methane emission experienced a decrease in Fujian province from 1980 to 2011,accounting for almost 1 219.71 × 104 t in total,which means the rate is declining year by year;(2) The highest mount of agricultural methane emission appeared in Nanping,Longyan and Zhangzhou,accounting for 47％ in total;(3) During the 32 years,the amount of methane emission in rice paddies is 877.63 × 104 t in Fujian,showing an overall decreasing trend with an annual rate of 1.96％.Animal intestines and livestock manures methane emission showed a clearly increasing trend,with average annual growth rates of 1.04％ and 2.25％ respectively;(4) The amount of methane emission from different agricultural sources is quite different.Paddy is the main source of agricultural methane emission,accounting for 72％ in total,while animal digestive tract accounts for 23％ and livestock manures accounts for 5％.Controlling the rice paddy soil organic matter is a vital point for the paddy CH4 emissions management;(5) The estimated model of 2025 shows that the amount of agriculture CH4 emission reduces overall in Fujian province.Meanwhile,to enhance the efficiency of ruminant feed and animal waste management has become an important point for the development of agriculture in Fujian.