河南省四化协调发展时空演变路径研究

摘要

Based on the index system for urbanization,industrialization,informationization and agricultural modernization development and the model of coupling coordination development,this paper uses the method of improved entropy,the integrated comprehensive evaluating,ESDA and grey relational analysis to explore the spatial-temporal evolution of the coordination development of the New Four Modernizations during the period of 2001 to 2014 in Henan Province.The results show:The development index of the New Four Modernizations indicates growth trends during the study period,the development process of informationization is significantly behind that of the other three,and the gaps of the four modernizations coordination in different regions become smaller and gradually realize integration development.The coordination development of the four modernizations demonstrates a significant spatial clustering effect,high-high districts are mainly located in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration,low-low areas are located in the southeast of Henan Province.The grey correlation degree of the driving factors of social urbanization,rural modernization with the coordination degree tends to be smaller than that of the economic urbanization,the average gray relational grade of the level of science and education is over 0.90,and those of the remaining factors are between 0.80 ～ 0.90.%在构建城镇化、新型工业化、信息化、农业现代化发展评价指标体系和耦合协调发展模型基础上,运用改进的熵值法、综合评分法、ESDA和灰色关联分析法等方法对河南省2001、2005、2010和2014年18个省辖市四化协调发展的时空演变路径及其影响因子进行分析.结果显示,研究期间河南省四化子系统发展水平呈增长趋势,信息化明显落后于其他三化,地区之间四化协调发展水平差距逐渐变小,逐渐实现四化融合发展;河南省四化协调发展呈现明显的空间群聚效应,高-高区主要位于河南省中原城市群内部,低-低区分布在豫东南地区;社会城镇化、农村现代化与四化协调度的灰色关联度较小,经济城镇化、教育科技水平、农民现代化与四化协调度关联度较高,灰色关联度平均值大于0.90,其余因子影响水平都居于0.80～0.90之间.