人民币区域化对中国货币政策独立性的影响*--基于三元悖论指数的检验

摘要

本文在构建三元悖论指数（trilemma index）的基础上，通过协整分析、不重复 Bootstrap 的数值模拟、和误差修正模型，进行了两方面的检验：一是人民币区域化背景下三元悖论在中国是否成立；二是三元悖论成立的条件下货币政策独立性受到的影响。研究发现，中国的三元悖论在三个政策目标的搭配下是成立的。在货币政策独立性所受影响方面，长期内，汇率制度弹性越大，资本账户开放程度越低，货币政策独立性越好；短期内，汇率制度对货币政策独立性影响不显著，而资本账户开放程度的影响是显著的，且资本账户开放程度越高，货币政策越独立。%On the basis of the trilemma index,the paper tried the methods including the Co-integration,Bootstrap without replacement and Error Correction Model to test:in the context of RMB regionalization whether the impossible trinity is suitable for China’ s case and the influence on the independence of monetary policy.We found that with the right combination of the three policy positions,the trilemma principle was suitable.In terms of the influence on monetary policy independence,we found that larger the elasticity of exchange rate regime and the level of capital account openness,the greater of monetary policy independence in the long term.In the short term,the influence of exchange rate regime on monetary policy independence was statistically non significant while the influence of Capital account openness was significant.Besides,the higher level of capital account openness,the greater the monetary independence.