断层形变异常的地震与无震判别

摘要

Aiming at the uncertainty of earthquake discrimination by using anomaly of fault deformation, 3 strong earthquakes in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Tibet block as typical examples were analyzed. In addition, the abnormal characteristics ( modality、time series、spatial distributing) of fault deformation before the earthquake, the seismic activity of correlative outer tectonic region were analyzed. From these analyses the following conclusions are drawn. If the anomaly of fault deformation satisfies the criterion of abnormal characteristics before earthquake and the seismic activity of correlative outer tectonic region is strong, the possibility of an earthquake is big; otherwise little possibility of an earthquake.%针对断层形变异常的地震判别不确定性问题,以发生于青藏块体东北缘的3次典型中强地震为例,研究了地震前断层形变异常特征和相应时期与之关联的外部构造区域的地震活动状况.研究结果表明:如果区域断层形变异常满足地震发生前的异常特征判据,并且相应时期与之关联的外部构造区域地震活跃背景情况下,其反映地震的概率较大;否则反映无震的可能性较大.