利用GRACE及气象数据评估GLDAS水文模型在青藏高原的适用性

摘要

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influence factors,improvement conditions and overall adaptability of hydrological models in the Tibetan plateau area.Two important indicators include using GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage (TWS) to compare with outputs from GLDAS,and using rainfall and temperature from in-situ measurements to compare with inputs from GLDAS.This paper uses correlation and error analysis to evaluate the input parameters of GLDAS,and compares it with the actual observation data as model prediction data.Results show that the indicators of GLDAS/Noah are in good agreement with GRACE.The annual amplitude and phase of rainfall and temperature data present higher coefficient of NSE and high consistency between the GLDAS model and the ground observation data.%以青藏高原地区为研究背景,以评估水文模型在该区的影响因素、改善条件及其整体适应性为研究目标,利用GRACE重力卫星对比水文模型模拟的陆地水变化,以及地面气象实测数据对比降雨与温度两项重要指标,采用相关与误差分析法评价水文模型输入参数,将其作为模型预测数据与实际观测数据进行对比分析.结果表明,GLDAS/Noah各项指标与GRACE更为相近,降雨与气温数据除夏冬两季存在幅值差异外,整体上周年幅值与相位都存在较高NSE系数,表明GLDAS模型的降雨及气温输入参数与地面观测数据有较高的一致性.