中国货币政策的工具规则和目标规则——“多工具，多目标”背景下的一个比较实证研究

摘要

China＇s monetary policy has been facing the reality of ＂multi-tool, multi-objective＂. For this reason, this paper compares the five different instrument rules of monetary policy empirically based on a generalized for- ward-looking reaction function model using of China＇s macro-data of 1994Q1-2011Q4. Each instrument rule im- plicit the four famous policy objectives. The empirical results show that the five rules are all facing a dilemma of ＂trade-off＂ and that the market interest rate rule is the best but are not stable inherently. Thus, in the ＂multi- tool, multi- objective＂ context, China＇s central bank should not adopt a single monetary policy rules. Finally, this paper proposes the corresponding policy recommendations.%我国货币政策面临“多工具，多目标”的现实状况，有鉴于此，本文基于一个广义前瞻性反应函数模型并利用我国1994Q1～2011Q4的宏观经济数据实证比较了五个不同的货币政策工具规则，每个工具规则都隐含四大政策目标。实证结果表明，五个规则都面临“顾此失彼”的困境；市场利率规则表现最好却具有内在不稳定性。因此，在“多工具，多目标”背景下，我国央行不宜采用单一的货币政策规则。本文提出了相应的政策建议。