本文基于中国（指中国大陆地区，下同）与51个贸易国家和地区之间的1993—2008年的面板数据，研究了加工贸易在中国双边贸易平衡中的作用，以及人民币升值对加工贸易的影响。实证分析表明：（1）在此期间中国每年的贸易顺差，都来自于加工贸易；（2）中国的加工贸易呈现明显的区域偏好——在2008年77％的加工贸易进口来自于东亚经济体，但是只有29％的加工贸易出口面向东亚经济体；（3）人民币升值对加工贸易的出口和进口都具有负面影响——人民币实际升值10％，不仅会使中国加工贸易出口下降9．1％，也会导致加工贸易进口下降5．O％．凶此，人民币的适度升值对于中国加工贸易以及整体贸易平衡的改善作用有限。%This paper analyzes the role of processing trade in China＇s bilateral trade balances and the impact of the yuan＇s appreciation on China＇s processing trade. The analysis is based on panel data covering bilateral processing trade between China and its 51 partners from 1993 to 2008. The empirical results show that： （ 1 ） processing trade accounted for 100% of China＇s annual trade surplus during the period; （2） China＇s processing trade showed a significant regional bias - 77% of processing imports originated from East Asia while only 29% of processing exports was destined to the region in 2008 ; and （ 3 ） a real appreciation of the ynan would negatively affect both processing imports and exports - specifically, a 10% real appreciation of the yuan would reduce not only China＇s processing exports by 9. 1% but also its processing imports by 5.0%. Based on these empirical findings we conclude that the combined effect of the yuan＇s appreciation on the balance of processing trade and thus China＇s overall trade balance will be limited.
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