基于联系期望的库岸泥石流危险性评价--以乌东德库区为例

摘要

The risk evaluation of debris flow on reservoir bank is a very complicated problem because the influencefactors are random,nonlinear and uncertainty.The Wudongde reservoir area is located at the lower reaches of theJinsha River.It is selected as a case study.The ten impact factors covering history of outbreak,geologicalcondition,terrain condition and hazard inducing factors,are chosen according to the geological and environmentalconditions of reservoir area.Furthermore,the debris flow risk classification is established and divided into fourgrades of extremely severe,severe,moderate and mild.The set pair analysis theory is used to analyze the impactfactors represented by the interval number.A new model of connectional expectation for debris flow risk evaluationis introduced.This model can be used to analyze variation trend of debris flow impact factors.The case study showsthat the new method is reliable and can simplify the analysis process of the relationship between interval numbers.%库岸泥石流危险性评价，受具有随机性、非线性与未确知性特点的诸多因素的影响与控制，是一个极其复杂的难题。以金沙江下游乌东德库区为例，据其特有的地质环境条件，选取爆发历史、地质条件、地形条件、诱发因素共4类10种泥石流影响因子，并建立分级标准将库岸泥石流危险性分为4个等级：极度危险、高度危险、中度危险、轻度危险。应用集对分析理论分析利用区间数表示的泥石流影响因子，建立了基于联系期望概念的库岸泥石流危险性评价新模型，可统一分析泥石流危险性评价指标的区间形式及演化态势。实例分析结果表明，该方法评判结果可靠，且能简化区间数关系的分析过程。