通过对639份贷款样本数据,运用决策树算法和二元Logit模型,分析了农地经营权抵押贷款风险类型,并对不同土地规模农户的抵押贷款风险进行应用研究.实证结果表明:农户农地经营权抵押贷款风险显示为多种复杂类型,不同风险类型对农地经营权抵押贷款风险影响程度具有树形结构及次序性特征,决策树算法对农地经营权抵押贷款风险识别精准有效;土地规模差异对农户遭受农地经营权抵押贷款不同风险类型的影响程度不同,小规模 、中等规模和大规模农户面临的市场经营风险 、政策法律风险 、自然灾害风险 、道德风险发生的概率存在较大差异.据此提出相关政策建议.%This paper uses Decision Tree Algorithm and Logit model to identify the risk of rural land manage-ment right mortgage loans based on 639 samples .Empirical results show that the risk is complex and its impact exhibits a tree structural and sequential feature .Decision Tree Algorithm is an accurate and effective method to identify the risk of the loans .The land scale differences are co-related with the risks that farmers may be ex-posed to when taking mortgage loans through offering land management right . The risk differences which small ,medium and large scale farmers may be subject to can be shown in market managing risks ,policy and regulation risks ,natural disaster risks ,ethical risks ,etc .
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