承灾空间淹没相对风险评估方法研究

摘要

从系统工程的角度,综合考虑洪水淹没的水文不确定性和工程结构不确定性,提出了承灾空间淹没相对风险的概念.通过故障树分析方法,将淹没场景导致淹没相对风险产生的过程进行解析;并推导出特定堤段、特定重现期风暴潮和多个重现期风暴潮洪水条件下的任意点淹没风险计算方法.以上海浦东新区沿海海堤保护区为研究实例,给出研究区任意点的淹没相对风险空间分布图,为防洪决策提供更多的依据.%From the view of systems engineering, and considering the uncertainties of flood hydrology and engineering structures, the concept of flooded relative risk in flooded area is proposed. Based on the fault tree analysis methods, the generated process of relative risk induced by inundated scene is analyzed; and an inundation risk calculation method in the condition of specific levee section, specific return period of storm surges is derived. Taking the coastal seawall protected area in Shanghai Pudong New Area for example, submerged relative risk distribution map of any point of the study area is given, so as to provide more evidence for the flood control decision-making.