基于可变模糊集理论的水资源开发利用程度综合评价

摘要

According to the degree of water resources development and utilization, and contradiction between demand and supply in development of social economy in Nantong, Jiangsu Province, a comprehensive evaluation index system of water resources development and utilization was established with consideration of 4 layer system and 16 indicators in water resources, society, economy and ecology, using the variable fuzzy sets theory and analytic hierarchy process, to analyze the current situation of development and utilization of water resources in the study area. The results show that supporting capacity of the water resources is at medium level or slightly lower, the ability of supply is in a tendency to poor, development and utilization is full and the pressure is bigger. If corresponding measures can not be taken as soon as possible, water resources in the study area will be short for supply.%基于水资源开发利用程度，针对南通市沿海5县、区社会经济的发展对水资源需求与供给量的矛盾问题，利用可变模糊集理论和层次分析法，从水资源、社会、经济和生态四方面选定16个指标，构建了4层水资源开发利用程度综合评价指标体系，对研究区水资源开发利用程度现状进行分析评价研究。研究结果表明，当地水资源的支撑能力处于中等偏低，水资源满足发展的供需能力有逐渐变差的趋势；地区水资源开发利用充分，压力有超载的趋势，如果不尽快采取相应的措施，研究区的水资源将会出现供需紧张的现象。