亚马逊流域降雨径流时空变化分析

摘要

基于全球降雨气候中心(GPCC)和全球径流数据中心(GRDC)的降雨径流资料,选择亚马逊流域16个测站,利用三次样条、Mann-Kendall法、Yamamoto检验、最大熵谱法和小波分析法,分析了各子流域的年降水量和年径流量的趋势性、周期性、突变性,并对降水、径流的时间变化和空间分布进行分析.结果表明:整个流域降水量和径流量随时间变化呈增加趋势;其降雨分布不均,南多北少;年降水倾向率有明显空间差异,近50年,流域上、下游径流增加,中游径流减少,整体则有微弱增长.%Based on the rainfall-runoff data obtained from GPCC (Global Precipitation Climatology Centre) and GRDC (Global Runoff Data Centre), this selected 16 stations in the Amazon Basin to analyze the trend, periodicity and mutation of the annual precipitation and runoff in the various sub-basins, and analyzed the variation of runoff in time and spatial distribution, by using Cubic Spline Interpolation, Mann-Kendall method, Yamamoto test, Maximum Entropy method and Wavelet Analysis. The results show that there is an increase in precipitation and runoff in the whole basin. The distribution of rainfall is uneven, with the north experiencing lesser rain than the south. In the past 50 years, the runoff has increased in the upper and lower parts of the basin. The runoff in the middle has reduced, but the decrease was lesser than the increase. There is a slight increase in the overall trend.