基于农业旱灾风险评价的作物种植结构调整研究--以昆明市东川区为例

摘要

作物种植结构调整研究一直是农业地理学及农业经济学中传统且重要的研究内容，是学术界关注的热点。旱灾是影响我国农业生产最为严重的自然灾害之一。因此尝试在农业旱灾风险评价基础上对作物种植结构进行优化，以期为作物种植结构调整开拓新思路，促进农业持续发展。以昆明市东川区为例，采用地理调查法、专家评价法及数理分析法等，综合考虑作物对水份需求状态、作物省内种植比较优势及当地农业旱灾风险等因素影响，对作物种植面积进行调整。结果显示，东川区适合种植薯类、玉米等耗水量小的旱作物，建议扩大其种植面积；水稻综合调整指数偏低，应缩减其种植面积；减少高耗水作物甘蔗等种植面积；稳定豆类、蔬菜种植；同时加大发展地方特优品种生产，提高农产品市场竞争力。%the study of adjustment for the crop structure has been the traditional and important research con-tent in the agricultural geography and agricultural economics is a hot topic in the academic circles.Drought is one of the most serious natural disasters effect the agricultural production in China.Based on the risk assessment for ag-ricultural drought,tried to optimize the crop structure,so we can explore new way for the adjustment of crop struc-ture,promote the sustainable development of agriculture.For Dongchuan district,using the method of geological survey,expert evaluation method and mathematical analysis,with the comprehensive consideration of crop demand for water and the comparative advantage of crop planting in the province and local agricultural drought,adjusts the crop area.The results show that,the Dongchuan district is suitable for planting potato,corn and other dry crops, so we suggest to expand its planting area;the comprehensive adjustment index of rice is low,so we suggest to re-duce its planting area;To reduce the planting area of high water-intensive crops such as sugar cane;we should keep the way of planting beans,vegetables and increase the development of local excellent production,improve the market competitiveness of agricultural products.