重大自然灾害时空对称性方法体系综述

摘要

The trend judgment theory of major natural disaster could be a new starting point to improve the scientific system of disaster forecast,prediction,assessment,and propelled the innovation of risk management re-search.This article systematically introduced the previous development of research on the spatiotemporal symmetry of natural disaster.The theories of spatiotemporal symmetry in major natural disaster are summarized from the fol-lowing five aspects,i.e.symmetry theory,chemical periodical law,reversed innovative thinking,informatics the-ory and spatiotemporal rules in Geography.Moreover,focused on such three key issues as temporal symmetry,spa-tial symmetry,and relate mechanism analysis of spatiotemporal symmetry,a new framework of spatiotemporal sym-metry on natural disaster was proposed.Finally,future research prospects on the spatiotemporal symmetry of natural disaster are discussed,including building the spatial symmetry of meteorological disaster,quantifying the uncertain-ty of selecting disaster events,incorporating the rationalism mechanisms on spatiotemporal symmetry of natural dis-aster,enriching the cases and facts of spatiotemporal symmetry of nature disaster,which provided guidance for structuring the new subject of statistical catastrophology,and deepening the academic research on tendency judg-ment of natural disaster.%重大自然灾害趋势判断，是灾害预测、灾害预报、风险评估研究体系的完善，也是推动灾害风险管理研究创新的新思路。在已有研究基础上，对自然灾害时空对称性的理论基础进行再思考，从对称性原理、元素周期律、逆向创新思维、信息学理论、地理学时空规律等角度，总结了自然灾害时空对称性的理论基础；进而从时间对称性、空间对称性和时空对称相关机理3个方面，提出新的自然灾害时空对称性方法体系；同时，研究探讨了自然灾害时空对称性研究的发展方向，即气象灾害空间对称性、自然灾害等级定量化、对称性相关机理综合、时空对称性案例丰富，以期为构建统计灾害学，深化自然灾害趋势研究提供理论和方法借鉴。