气候变暖对桂林地区柑桔灾害的影响

摘要

根据桂林1981-2015年气温、降水资料,对桂林市近35年气候条件的长期变化趋势和年际变化特征进行了详细的分析,并初步分析了气候条件的变化对柑桔灾害的影响.结果表明:近35年来,桂林市的年平均气温自1980年代中期以来呈上升的趋势,以0.076℃/10年速度上升,进入1990年代后期,这种趋势明显加快,尤以春季升温最为明显,冬季次之;气温在1997年出现了突变,直接导致暖冬、35℃以上高温日数、≥10℃活动积温在1997年以后增多趋势显著.年降水量呈弱增多趋势,夏季增多最明显,春季呈增多趋势.气候变暖使柑桔虫害越冬基数增加,低温阴雨、洪涝、高温、干旱等气象灾害的频率增加,使柑桔生产的不稳定性增加,对柑桔的产量、品质造成危害.%According to the data related to the temperature and precipitation of Guilin from 1981 to 2015,the long-term trend and inter-annual variation characteristics of climatic conditions in Guilin City in recent 35 years were analyzed in detail.At the same time,the influence of climatic conditions on citrus disaster was analyzed preliminarily.The results show that the average annual temperature of Guilin has been increasing at the rate of 0.76 ℃ / 10 years since the mid-1980s,and it has been increasing even faster in the late 1990s.This trend is obviously accelerated in spring,followed by that in winter.Temperature had a sudden change in 1997,leading to warm winter,more hot days with a high temperature over 35 ℃ and accumulated dynamic temperature(≥ 10℃).This trend is more significant after 1997.The annual precipitation has been slightly increasing,the most obvious in summer,and the precipitation is increasing in spring.Climate warming increases the winter base of citrus pests,leading to the high frequency of low-temperature rain,floods,high temperatures and droughts.So the instability of citrus production is increased,thus causing damage to the yield and quality of citrus.