哈巴河县打瓜产量与气象因子的关系及产量预测

摘要

Using the meteorological information from May to September from 2000 to 2009, by dint of linear regression method, the meteorological output had significant relevance to the temperature, precipitation, humidity and earth humidity. The production forecast model of the kind of watermelon was established after gradually return. Y = 150. 845 -2. 843X1 -0. 821X2 + 4. 581X3 + 0. 253X4. The average deviation was 3.27％ by testing. The prediction model was accurate , which could meet the business requirements.%利用哈巴河县2000～2008年5～9月打瓜生育期间的气象资料,采用线性回归方法,得到打瓜气象产量和温度、降水、湿度、地湿4个因子呈显著相关特性.逐步回归后建立打瓜产量预测的数学模型:Y = 2 262.677-42.639X1-12.309X2+68.710X3+3.795X4,经检验其平均偏差为0.69%,可知预测模型较准确,能满足业务要求.