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1951~1999年中国降水和气温的SEOF分析

     

摘要

[Objective] The research aimed to study the seasonal variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in China during 1951 - 1999. [ Method ] Based on the monthly average precipitation and temperature data in 160 stations from January, 1951 to February, 1999 which were provided by China Meteorological Administration, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in China in 48 years were studied by using SEOF method. [ Result] SEOF analysis of precipitation: the first modal SEOF analysis showed the four-season propulsion of rain belt in China from south to north. Seen from the time coefficient, as a whole, the precipitation in China slightly decreased during the 1960s- 1970s. After the 1970s, the precipitation had the increase trend and had the decrease trend after the 1980s.SEOF analysis of temperature: the first modals of precipitation and temperature configured well in the space. In the dry zone where the precipitation was less, the temperature variation was obvious. Coordinated with the time sequence, the temperature in China during 1951 - 1999 was low, and it was the low temperature period in the 1950s. The temperature rose during the 1950s - 1960s, and it entered into the low temperature period again from the middle and latter periods of 1960s to early the 1970s. From the metaphase of 1970s to the end of 1990s, the temperature relatively stably increased. [ Conclusion ] The research provided the theory basis for studying the climate variation in China.%[目的]研究1951~1999年我国降水和气温的季节变化特征.[方法]利用我国气象局提供的160个站1951年1月~1999年2月的月平均降水和气温资料,运用SEOF方法研究了48年我国降水和气温的时空变化特征.[结果]降水的SEOF分析表明,第1模态的SEOF分析表现了我国雨带从南到北的四季推进;从时间系数来看,总体上,20世纪60~70年代我国降水略有减少,70年代后降水是增多的趋势,80年代后降水又是减少的趋势.气温的SEOF分析表明,降水的第1模态和气温的第1模态在空间上配置较好,降水量少的干旱区域,温度变化比较明显,配合时间序列来看,1951~199,年我国气温是偏低;20世纪50年代为低温时期,50~60年代前期气温有所升高,60年代中、后期~70年代初期又进入低温时期,70年代中期至90年代末气温变化相对稳定增大.[结论]该研究为我国气候变化提供理论依据.

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