消除偏差集合平均在黄海渤海大风预报中的应用

摘要

基于日本气象厅预报模式(JMA)、美国国家环境预报中心预报模式(NCEP GFS)及美国海军全球大气预报谱模式(NOGAPS)3个模式2009年6月28日～8月10日每日20:00预报的海面风场预报资料,利用消除偏差集合平均对海面风场进行预报试验,并采用均方根误差对预报结果进行检验评估.结果表明,对于24、48 h海面风场预报,消除偏差集合平均有效地减小了预报的均方根误差,预报效果优于单个模式的预报;其中,渤海中部偏南地区及黄海中部误差减小最为明显.此外,消除偏差集合平均预报明显改善了2009年7月13～14日和8月7日大风过程的预报效果,提高了风速值和大风区位置的预报准确率.%Based on the prediction data of sea surface wind field which were forested by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast model, National Centers for Environmental Prediction ( NCEP GFS) forecast model and U.S. Navy Operatiomtl Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model at 20：00 from June 28 to August 10 in 2009 ,the bias-removod ensemble mean (BRM) was applied to do the forecast test on the sea surface wind field,and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was used to test and evaluate the forecast results. The results showed that the bias - removed ensemble mean reduced efficiently the RMSEs of 24 and 48 h sea surface wind field forecasts,and the forecast effect was superior to that of the single model forecast. The error reduction was the most significant in the south of middle Bohai and the middle of Yellow Sea. In addition, the bias-removed ensemble mean forecast improved obviously the forecast effect of gale process which occurred during July 13 - 14 and August 7,2009. The forecast accuracy of wind speed value and the gale zone location was improved.