[目的]确定安徽沿淮地区冬小麦(Triticum aestivum)精准播种期.[方法]利用气象资料,结合冬小麦高产播种要求,对安徽省沿淮地区的冬小麦精准播期的可预测性进行研究.[结果]该地区适宜播期呈推迟趋势,每10年变化率约1.75 d,气候变暖是播期推迟的根本原因;播期在年际之间存在较大波动,非规律性极端天气气候事件是播期波动的主要原因;温度变化的规律性和后效性使冬小麦的播期具有可预报性.认为沿淮地区宜选用10月15日以后5d滑动平均温度首次降到17℃以下作为冬小麦适宜播种指标;常规气象预报具有的较高的准确性可以实现冬小麦精准播期的预报.[结论]该研究可为安徽沿淮地区冬小麦的高产优质栽培提供借鉴.%[Objective] The purpose was to confirm the precise sowing date of winter wheat in the region along Huaihe River in Anhui Province. [ Method ] The predictability of the precise sowing date of winter wheat in the region along Huaihe River in Anhui province was studied according to the high-yielding cultural techniques of winter wheat and the meteorological data. [Result] The results showed that the suitable sowing dates had a delay trend in this region, the change rate was about 1. 75 d every 10 years, and climate warming was the fundamental cause of the delaying. But the sowing dates were fluctuations in the past 61 years, and the irregular extreme weather conditions were the main cause. The precise sowing date was potential predictability based on the regularly downward trend and after-effect of temperature. The research showed that the index of sowing date in the region along Huaihe River in Anhui Province was the first day when the five days moving average temperature below 17 ℃ , and then the precision sowing date could be accurately predicted based on the accurate routine weather forecast. [ Conclusion] The study provides a reference for high yield and good quality cultivation of winter wheat in the region along Huaihe River in Anhui Province.
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