2016年新疆一次大降水天气过程分析

摘要

利用中国气象局MICAPS资料,对2016年7月31日—8月2日新疆一次大范围的大降水天气的形势场、高低空配置、风场、云图、雷达特征及预报检验进行了分析.结果表明,造成这次大降水的主要形势场是南北两支低槽结合,存在高空偏西急流、中层偏南急流和850 hPa配合有偏东风,3支气流的维持加强,为大降水提供了充沛的水汽条件.降水区雷达回波维持时间长,存在辐合区,位置稳定;短时强降水的时段,有逆风区存在,回波顶高达到12 km.EC细网格预报72 h内在降水落区、降水量级、暴雨落区的位置和范围方面较WRF准确率高,但对伊犁北部降水量预报较实况量级偏小.%Using the MICAPS data of China Meteorological Bureau,the situation field,high and low altitude configuration,wind field,cloud map,radar characteristics and forecast test of a wide range of heavy rainfall weather in Xinjiang from July 31 to August 2,2016 were analyzed.The results showed that the main potential field of this heavy rainfall was the combination of the two low-troughs in the north and the south,and there were high-level westing jet stream,middle-level south jet stream and 850 hPa with partial easterly winds,which provide plenty of water vapor conditions for heavy rainfall.The radar echo in the precipitation area was long and there was a convergence zone,and the position was stable;During short periods of heavy rainfall,there was a strong wind zone,and the echo top was as high as 12 km.EC fine grid forecast 72 h internal precipitation area,precipitation level,the location and range of rainstorm area were higher accuracy rate than that of the WRF forecast,but that of the northern part of Yili was relatively smaller than actual level.