河南省城市化进程与经济增长关系的实证分析

摘要

基于河南省1978-2014年的时间序列数据及18个地市2005-2014年的面板数据分别建立VEC模型及固定效应变系数模型,对河南省全域及局域的城市化水平与经济增长分别进行因果关系判断和影响程度分析.研究表明,城市化水平和经济增长间存在长期稳定的协整关系,河南省经济增长是推进城市化进程的原因,但城市化水平对经济增长的促进作用并不明显;各地市的城市化水平对经济增长的贡献存在差异,空间关联性较低,郑州市的弹性系数最高,驻马店最低;河南省城市化水平每提高一个百分点,可以维持3.93％的经济增长.%The development trend of urbanization indicates that there is a mutual promoting relationship between urbanization and economic growth.This paper uses Vector Error Correction model and fixed effects unrestricted model to explain the relationship between urbanization and economic growth based on the time series data in Henan province from 1978 to 2014 and panel data in 18 cities from 2005 to 2014.The results show that an existing longterm and stable co-integration relationship between urbanization and economic growth.Economic growth is the reason of the urbanization process,but the effect of urbanization level promoting economic growth are not obvious in Henan;The contribution of urbanization to economic growth are different among the cities.The elasticity of Zhengzhou is the highest,and Zhumadian is the lowest.Every one percent increase of urbanization level in Henan province can maintain economic growth of 3.93％ a year.